GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7538 |
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"Detailed global land use and land cover projections under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways: An integrated Computable General Equilibrium analysis with sub-national resolution for Europe" by Goebel, Theresa and Wolfgang Britz Abstract Land use and land cover (LULC) developments are important for the future of our planet. As they are largely determined by uncertain socio-economic drivers, the climate research community follows a scenario approach to explore contrasting futures in line with pre-defined narratives. The most recent socio-economic scenarios are the five so-called Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). LULC quantifications in line with those are available for aggregated world regions from five Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The resolution of these existing projections is however deemed not sufficient for specific studies. Further, LULC modelling is highly uncertain and there is a consensus to rely on a variety of approaches and models to investigate future LULC developments. Against this background, this work presents a new set of global SSP-based LULC projections up to the year 2050 providing an uprecedented level of detail regarding the regional coverage and the considered (agricultural) land uses. This analysis is not based on model couplings but depicts integrated assessment features in a highly detailed global recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis drawing on the CGE modelling platform CGEBox and the latest release of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base Version v11. Relying on the GTAP-based Recursive-Dynamic Economic Model (G-RDEM), important drivers of structural change are explicitly considered in this analysis. Integrated assessment features are addressed with the help of CGEBox’ GTAP-AEZ, GTAP-E and Emission-Accounting modules. Moreover, the quantifications translate the SSP narratives into comprehensive assumptions on LULC drivers and they are based on updated versions of the SSP-specific demography and GDP projections. |
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- Land use - Economic development - Baseline development - Dynamic modeling |
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Public Access  Paper (333.9 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
