GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7678 |
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"Afforestation and Its Limits: Integrating Soil Carbon and Biochar in Land-Based CDR Portfolios " Authors: Kamasela, Dianti Farhana, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa and Saritha Vishwanathan Abstract Limiting global warming in line with the goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report requires not only rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but also large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The IPCC AR6 indicates cumulative CDR requirements of approximately 190 to more than 400 GtCO2 over the twenty-first century, depending on mitigation pathways and the pace of emissions reductions. Within integrated assessment and CGE-consistent land-use frameworks, land-based CDR options such as afforestation and reforestation are widely deployed due to relatively low marginal abatement costs and their representation in global land-use allocation models. However, from a system-wide land-use and economic allocation perspective, large-scale afforestation introduces substantial trade-offs through competition with agricultural production, land rent dynamics, and constraints from biodiversity protection and heterogeneous land suitability. This study quantifies global afforestation potential under explicit land-use constraints, including biodiversity-protected areas and available unused land up to 2100, assuming expansion consistent with a Global Forest Target of 25 Mha yr?¹. Results indicate that afforestation alone could deliver approximately 180 GtCO2 of cumulative carbon sequestration by 2100, which is insufficient to meet upper-bound CDR requirements under stringent climate mitigation scenarios. To address this gap, we further assess complementary land-based CDR options, including soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and biochar application. SOC sequestration contributes approximately 139 GtCO2, while biochar adds about 149 GtCO2 over the same period. When integrated, these land-based CDR options provide a sustained global removal level of approximately 6–8 GtCO2 yr?¹ throughout the century, corresponding to cumulative removals of around 480 GtCO2 by 2100. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate change policy - Ecosystem services and biodiversity - Environmental policies - Land use - Model extension/development - Model integration and coupling - Global |
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Public Access  PDF (482.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
