GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7679 |
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"From Population Growth to Variable-Specific Forecasts: An Estimation-Based Method for Recursive Dynamic CGE Modeling" by Ait Faraji, Said and Nabil El Baouchari Abstract Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are essential tools for simulating economy-wide policy impacts. While static CGE variants analyze single-period equilibria, recursive-dynamic extensions incorporate intertemporal growth paths. However, most dynamic frameworks rely on exogenous population projections to scale labor supply, household demand, and other variables proportionally. Recent improvements, such as the GTAP-RD framework, have enhanced baseline calibration through historical structural change. Yet these models continue to rely on externally imposed population and labor projections, calibrated productivity shocks, and twist parameters. As a result, they function largely as sophisticated extrapolation techniques with limited statistical validation. This study introduces an estimation-based recursive-dynamic CGE approach that replaces blanket scaling of population with tailored econometric forecasts for each macroeconomic variable. The multi-sector, multi-agent model is calibrated to a detailed Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Morocco (base year 2023), constructed from national accounts, supply-use tables, government finance statistics, and the balance of payments. The model is implemented in GAMS and inspired by the PEP 1.t framework. The methodology first estimates key variables via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) using data from Morocco’s Supply and Use Tables, then derives variable-specific growth rates to drive the dynamic baseline. This approach endogenizes the evolution of population, labor participation, sector-specific total factor productivity, demand parameters, and trade elasticities, yielding forecasts with confidence intervals and enabling structural break testing. Comparative simulations reveal substantial divergences between the traditional constant-population-growth BAU and the estimation-based BAU across agriculture, industry, and services in exports, imports, consumption, value added, and real GDP through 2035. |
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- Other data bases and data issues - Advances in quantitative methods - Baseline development - Calibration and parameter estimation - Econometric methods - Africa (North) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7679 (450.1 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 2/26/2026 2:27:51 PM
