GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7738 |
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"From Mines to Meals: Assessing the Food Security Impacts of Phosphate Rock Scarcity in a Global CGE Model" Authors: Jallow, Mamadou and Kirsten Boysen-Urban Abstract Phosphorus, sourced almost entirely from mined phosphate rock, is an essential and non substitutable input in agriculture, making it a key determinant of global food security. Yet, phosphate rock reserves are geographically concentrated, exposing the global food system to significant geopolitical and market risks. Existing economic assessments either treat phosphate rock implicitly within aggregated sectors or focus on physical depletion without capturing market feedback or food security outcomes. This study addresses this gap by extending the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to explicitly account for the full phosphate rock value chain from extraction to use in fertilizers, animal feed, and industrial applications. Using the GTAP Circular Economy database, we disaggregate non metallic minerals into a dedicated phosphate rock mining sector and other food products into a separate feed industry. While the database extension and sectoral disaggregation have been successfully completed, the simulation phase is currently underway and will be finalized soon. The forthcoming analysis will assess the implications of phosphate rock scarcity for global food security under alternative resource constraint scenarios, quantifying effects on fertilizer prices, trade patterns, agricultural production, and regional welfare with particular attention to import dependent and low income countries. |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7738 (410.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
