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GTAP Resource #7741

"The potential of supporting developing countries by using carbon tax revenue"
by Umehara, Yusuke, Limeng Fan, Shinichiro Fujimori, Shiya Zhao, Osamu Nishiura and Diego Herran


Abstract
Achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement requires substantial reductions in global emissions. In many integrated assessment models’ global scenarios, a uniform global carbon price is widely assumed as a cost effective policy instrument, yet equity oriented climate finance is rarely assessed within these frameworks. This study quantitatively evaluated the potential of carbon tax revenues as a source of international climate finance through transfers from developed to developing countries under mitigation pathways consistent with the 1.5°C target. We found that such revenues would average approximately USD 1.2 trillion annually between 2030 and 2050. Without additional financial support, cumulative macroeconomic losses in developing countries would reach 7.5% by 2050, exceeding those in developed regions. In contrast, transferring 100% of carbon tax revenues from developed countries would reduce these losses to 2.8%, yielding near parity in consumption loss rates between developed and developing regions. Such transfers would also lower the number of people living in extreme poverty in 2050 by 44 million (9.9% of the poverty headcount). These results underscore the significant potential of carbon tax revenues to advance equity and alleviate economic and social burdens in developing countries while sustaining cost effective global mitigation pathways.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In:
Date: 2026
Version: 1
Created: Umehara, Y. (4/13/2026)
Updated: Umehara, Y. (4/14/2026)
Visits: 9
- Climate change policy
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Global


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