GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7746 |
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"Integrating Project Finance and CGE Modelling for Hydropower Investments in Pakistan" Authors: Yin, Ge and Alvaro Calzadilla Abstract Large-scale energy infrastructure financed under the Belt and Road Initiative generates economy-wide effects that vary across the project lifecycle, yet existing evaluations rarely assess construction, financing, and operation within a single analytical framework. This paper applies the InvestCGE model, a dynamic-recursive computable general equilibrium model, to assess the full lifecycle macroeconomic impact of the 720 MW Karot Hydropower Plant. The model decomposes the economy-wide effects into three channels: construction demand, electricity supply, and project finance. We find that the electricity supply channel dominates the long-run welfare gain, while the debt service obligation compresses government consumption by up to 34% during the 17-year repayment period. The financing terms, rather than the project itself, account for approximately half of the long-run welfare gap relative to an unburdened counterfactual. These findings reframe the policy debate from procurement localisation toward debt sustainability and provide a replicable methodology for ex-ante appraisal of foreign-financed infrastructure in developing countries. |
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- Renewable energy - Infrastructure - Asia (South-Central) |
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Public Access  Paper (1.2 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
