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GTAP Resource #7761

"Optimal Tariffs in Static and Dynamic Settings: Under Observed Trade Imbalances"
Authors: Ali, Suraiya Binte and Edward J. Balistreri


Abstract
We develop a multi-region, multi-sector growth model with forward-looking dynamics. We consider three different balance-of-payments closures to evaluate trade deficits in a welfare analysis of US tariff policy. Extending the classical inverse-elasticity formula to an intertemporal setting with uniform time-invarient tariffs, we consider capital market access, as financial valuation effects and endogenous current-account. Under the within-horizon closure, anticipation and retaliation emerge as distinct forces: the former governs pre-implementation investment surges and current-account dynamics, while symmetric retaliation eliminates the terms-of-trade gains, imposing persistent macroeconomic losses over the horizon.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Ali, S. (4/13/2026)
Updated: Ali, S. (4/13/2026)
Visits: 27
- Economic growth
- Bridging CGE and new quantitative trade (NQT) literature
- Dynamic modeling
- Global


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