GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7765 |
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"A Global Trade Model Calibrated to USDA Baseline Agricultural Projections" Authors: Jimenez, Manuel, Diego Cardoso, Hao Xiong and Russell Hillberry Abstract The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) publishes, on an annual basis, its 10-year base-line agricultural projections for production, yields, harvested areas, trade and inventories of major agricultural commodities in the U.S. and major markets abroad. Despite the projections' importance in policymaking and other public and private decisions, the USDA lacks the practical ability to run counterfactual analysis exercises to evaluate the projections' response to any observed market change or proposed policy change. This paper develops a theoretically consistent economic model calibrated to the USDA baseline projections to facilitate such exercises. The calibrated model replicates the 10-year projections and allows simulated changes to the projections as a result of shocks to land supply, productivity or to a range of policy variables including tariffs, export taxes and non-tariff measures. Model output is mapped to a user-friendly display that can be used to illustrate the effects of a given shock on the projected outcomes. We conduct four model application exercises to illustrate the model's capabilities and our user-friendly approaches to displaying results on the internet. |
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- Other data bases and data issues - Partial and general equilibrium models - Software and modeling tools - Global |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  GTAP Resource 7765 (957.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
