GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7790 |
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"The Boom and Bust of Carbon Removal: Optimal Phaseout Pathways for DACCS Beyond 2100" Authors: Sukuman, Thanakon, Osamu Nishiura and Shinichiro Fujimori Abstract Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is increasingly built into climate pathways as a late-century lever, yet how this infrastructure is retired has received little attention. Using an extended version of the AIM-Hub economy-climate model running to 2150, we track the losses that accumulate when DACCS fleets are forced to shut down at different points between 2100 and 2150 under a shared 1.5 °C-aligned pathway. Timing matters far more than scale: a 2110 phase-out writes down roughly US$1.02 trillion in a single year because retirement catches a large and still-young fleet, while delaying to 2130 lets natural aging reduce that peak to about US$29 billion. The losses also cluster geographically, the top five regions absorb about 72% of the global total under a 2110 phase-out. How visible these losses appear in policy assessments depends on the discount rate: moving from 0% to 5% compresses the 2110 present value by about 61-fold and reshuffles which scenarios look worst, making the discount rate an implicit judgement about how much weight future generations carry. A credible DACCS exit therefore requires engaging with three questions at once: when to retire, who pays, and whose welfare counts. |
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Dynamic modeling - Global |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Paper (1.2 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
