GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7790 |
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"The Boom and Bust of Carbon Removal: Optimal Phaseout Pathways for DACCS Beyond 2100" Authors: Sukuman, Thanakon and Shinichiro Fujimori Abstract Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is increasingly built into climate pathways as a late-century lever, yet how this infrastructure is retired has received little attention. Using an extended version of the AIM-Hub model running to 2150, we track the stranded capital that accumulate when a DACCS fleet is phased out at different post-2100 years, comparing five forced-phaseout schedules (2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, 2150) against a no-phaseout reference. Using the annualized-cost accounting, cumulative stranded investment ranges from USD 27 billion (no-phaseout reference) to USD 1.11 trillion (Med_2120) at a 5% discount rate. Stranding peaks at the 2120 phase-out year, slightly above the 2110 case (USD 1.07 trillion), because the DACCS fleet continues to grow modestly through the 2110–2120 window before depreciation begins to outpace new build. Beyond 2120, each additional decade of operation reduces stranded value: USD 707 billion at Med_2130, USD 422 billion at Med_2140, and USD 268 billion at Med_2150. Planning a credible DACCS exit therefore requires knowing both the scale of capital at risk and the retirement timing that minimises stranded losses. |
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Dynamic modeling - Global |
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Public Access  Paper (459.9 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
