GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7808 |
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"Assessing the Impact of NDCs in South and Southeast Asia: A Recursive Dynamic CGE Analysis" Authors: Khatir, Mustajab Abstract Developing economies of South and Southeast Asia face a double-edged challenge. With the increasing temperatures, the immediate efforts to curtail the carbon emissions are fundamentally essential; while the agenda of developing the economic welfare of a large base of population is also of equivalent importance. Political economy of focusing on curtailing the carbon emissions creates apprehensions about the loss of welfare. This paper attempts to quantify the least welfare cost solution by comparing the three emissions quota and with targeted capital-augmenting electricity investment policy. The NDC scenarios from 2026 to 2037 have been calculated using the stated declarations by the countries in the South and Southeast Asia as per the Paris Agreement. This is simulated over and above a baseline scenario of staggered increasing energy efficiency, simulated using the IEA projections. In comparison to this, the projected increase in Energy infrastructure by the economies of South and Southeast Asia is documented from the planned investment declaration. This addition to capital in energy production is simulated as a capital augment technical change (AFE), which is used to project the energy production, energy efficiency, carbon emissions and welfare in the region. The simulations results yield distinct outcomes. Under NDCs regional economies suffer welfare losses while the emissions fall in the range of 5 – 15%. The AFE policy improves production and welfare while causing slight increase in emission. The combined policy yield best balance. Emissions decrease substantially and welfare losses are marginally offset. No single policy in isolation yields the best outcome. The results indicate that pairing carbon pricing with the energy infrastructure expansion is the most cost-effective policy for the region. Keywords: Climate Policy, South/Southeast Asia, CGE Modeling, GTAP-E-RD Model, Clean Energy Investment, Welfare Cost JEL Classification: Q40, Q43, C68, Q54 |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate change policy - Renewable energy - Trade and the environment - Economic growth - Asia (South-Central) - Asia (Southeast) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7808 (4.7 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
