GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7825 |
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"Modeling the Impact of Generative AI on Global Wages and Trade: A GTAP Framework with Occupational Details" Authors: Yuan, Wen Jin, Michael Ferrantino and Marinos Tsigas Abstract This paper examines the impacts of AI-driven productivity increases on global patterns of trade, income, and wages, using an implementation of CGE modeling that disaggregates the U.S. labor force into 22 occupations and leveraging recent research into the adoption of AI by workers and its labor market impacts. AI exposure and its associated productivity impacts tend to be concentrated in high-skill, high-wage occupations, such as management, computer science and mathematics, business and finance, and architecture and engineering. These occupations are used most intensively in the production of services and certain knowledge-intensive goods like computer, electronic, and optical products. Substitution of AI for labor causes relative wages to fall in these occupations. While AI increases real GDP in all regions of the world, gains are highest in the United States and other high-income countries, which have a comparative advantage in the production and export of services. Meanwhile, AI reduces wage gaps within countries but increases wage gaps between countries. It reduces wage gaps within countries because AI reduces the demand for high-income labor and increases the relative demand for low-income labor. It increases wage gaps between countries since high-income countries have a comparative advantage in services, and this advantage increases with AI. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- GTAP Data Base and extensions - Domestic policy analysis - Labor market issues - Technological change - Baseline development - Model extension/development - Asia (East) - European Union - Global - North America |
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Public Access  GTAP_occupation_AI_paper_04142026 (1,011.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/20/2026 1:44:43 PM
