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GTAP Resource #7831

"Scaling MDB Renewable Energy Finance: Economic and Environmental Implications"
Authors: Pape, Nicholas, Ian Sue Wing, Rishikesh Bhandary and Kevin Gallagher


Abstract
We quantify how much increased financing of solar and wind capacity by multilateral development banks (MDBs) in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), beyond business-as-usual (BAU) projections, can expand electricity supply while supporting economic development and reducing global CO2 emissions. Using two interconnected analytical models and a technology-rich computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the global economy in 2030, we evaluate three scenarios in which annual MDB financing for solar and wind across EMDEs (excluding China and Russia) is projected to rise from a BAU level of $2.12 billion to between $340.26 billion and $489.58 billion (2022 USD) during 2023-2030. Across the 14 aggregated EMDEs, median electricity supply in 2030 increases by 1.63-2.18% relative to BAU. We find mixed economic outcomes: median GDP rises by 0.11-0.12%, while median welfare declines by 0.12-0.29%. When the financing takes the form of grants rather than loans, median GDP rises by 0.14% and median welfare increases by 0.12-0.14%. Globally, total CO2 emissions fall by 0.46-0.55%. These findings indicate that increasing MDB financing of solar and wind can increase electricity supply in EMDEs, generate economic gains when financed through grants rather than loans, and contribute to reductions in global CO2 emissions.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Pape, N. (4/14/2026)
Updated: Pape, N. (4/14/2026)
Visits: 38
- Climate change policy
- Renewable energy
- Sustainable development
- Partial and general equilibrium models


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