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GTAP Resource #7849

"How to Model Border Carbon Adjustments in a Trade-Oriented CGE Framework"
Authors: Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara, Cecilia Bellora and Przemyslaw Kowalski


Abstract
Carbon pricing varies globally, creating incentives for producers to relocate to low-carbon-price jurisdictions, reducing mitigation effectiveness. This proposal develops a flexible modeling tool—extending the OECD's METRO CGE model—to evaluate border carbon adjustments (BCAs) as a trade policy response. The tool integrates greenhouse gas intensity coefficients across global supply chains using the GTAP Circular Economy database and OECD carbon pricing data, enabling policymakers to simulate production shifts, bilateral trade flows, and embodied emissions under different BCA designs. The model captures short-term economic effects but excludes endogenous technological adaptation, providing scenario analysis for how trade reallocation affects emissions absent behavioral change.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Pereira, M. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Pereira, M. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 8
- Climate impacts
- Model extension/development
- Software and modeling tools


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  docx File format GTAP Resource 7849  (55.8 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)


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