GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Livestock Sector Interventions in India: A CGE Approach" Authors: Chopra, Shruti, Keerthika B, Barun Deb Pal, Ajmani Manmeet and Anjani Kumar Abstract India produced about 248 million tonnes of milk in 2024–25-roughly a quarter of world output and well ahead of the European Union and the United States yet it accounts for barely 0.25% of world dairy trade, a hundred-to-one gap between its production share and its trade share. Dairy dominates a livestock sector that contributes about one-third of India’s agricultural value added and sustains the livelihoods of more than eighty million farm households. This paper quantifies the economy-wide and distributional consequences of livestock-sector interventions using a single-country, comparative-static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated to the IFPRI Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for India, 2022–23. Seven cumulative policy experiments move from a farm-gate milk-productivity gain, through dairy-processing expansion and export promotion, to dairy-trade liberalisation alone and in combination with productivity gains. Productivity-and-processing interventions deliver the largest real-output and welfare gains: real GDP rises by up to 0.22%, dairy-processing value added by up to 8.7%, and returns to land by up to 2.9%, while the relative price of food declines in every scenario. Trade liberalisation benefits consumers and wage-earners through cheaper imports and a real depreciation but reduces farm incomes, compresses investment, and erodes the tax-to-GDP ratio; on its own it barely expands dairy and is regressive across the rural–urban divide. Liberalisation becomes broadly welfare-improving only when paired with the productivity package, the only configuration that raises real incomes across all household groups, including the poorest quintile and farm households. The results support a sequenced reform agenda value-chain development first, export promotion second, and trade liberalisation last-and show that the sequence of reforms matters as much as their content. |
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- Sustainable development - Trade and the environment - Agricultural policies - Food prices and food security - Infrastructure - Baseline development - Partial and general equilibrium models - Software and modeling tools - Asia (South-Central) |
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Public Access  Paper-Shruti-GTAP Resource 7852 (1.7 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s) Presentation-Shruti-GTAP -7852 (1.4 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
