GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7857 |
|---|
|
"India’s Trade-Offs Between Accessing US Markets and Sourcing Russian Energy: A CGE Analysis" Authors: Chadha, Rajesh and Ganesh Sivamani Abstract The global trading order has been undergoing a major structural transformation, moving away from a rules-based multilateral trade discipline to asymmetric power plays in the global trade networks. The recent trade policy moves by the US, commencing in early 2025, have driven trade asymmetry to a new high. This paper highlights the impact of a coercive trade policy, combined with energy security concerns, on India’s economy, with a focus on India’s trade and strategic autonomy. While on the one hand, India’s commodity exports to the US, its most significant export destination, have been dented by the tariff hikes imposed by the US, India’s energy security has also been challenged simultaneously by the US dictating sanctions on India’s import of crude oil from Russia. Apart from the globally prevailing tariff hikes by the US, India would be subject to an additional 25% punitive tariffs by the US if it keeps importing oil from Russia. The present paper uses the latest GTAP Model and database to simulate the impacts on India of India a) complying with the US sanctions on India’s oil imports from Russia and b) defying the sanctions, continuing to import oil from Russia and paying punitive 25% tariffs. The two additional simulations introduce a further twist to the analysis by assuming a hypothetical 10% increase in the price of oil originating from the Middle East. The analysis indicates that India could have chosen a compliance strategy in the interest of its economic welfare and jobs. However, the choice seems to favour defiance in the event of an oil price shock stemming from a geoeconomic crisis. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
- Conventional energy - Supply chains - Asia (South-Central) - North America |
| Attachments |
|---|
|
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  A CGE Analysis of India’s Trade-Offs Between US Market Access and Sourcing (558.6 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
| Comments (0 posted) |
|---|
|
You must log in before entering comments.
No comments have been posted. |
Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
