GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #7861

"Economic Impacts of Trade Policies on Mineral Commodities: A Global CGE Analysis"
Authors: Shojaeddini, Ensieh


Abstract
In this study, we examine how trade policies influence mineral commodity markets and industrial supply chains using a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. We use the GTAP framework combined with the GTAP-CE (Circular Economy) database to link primary extraction with secondary resource flows, allowing us to assess economic shifts across global regions.

Our analysis introduces a 50% U.S. import tariff on midstream refined base metals, including primary iron, steel, aluminum, and copper. We observe how this policy alters activity along the supply chain. Specifically, it leads to increased domestic upstream extraction and secondary recycling, while simultaneously raising input costs for downstream manufacturing industries that rely on these metals.

The results highlight diverging effects across the U.S. value chain. While the tariffs encourage domestic midstream production, the higher downstream costs reduce U.S. manufacturing export competitiveness. This shift also creates varied regional spillover effects. China and the Rest of the World absorb the displaced U.S. global market share, while integrated USMCA partners see mixed outcomes. For instance, Canada gains new nearshoring capital investment but experiences a contraction in household consumption due to cross-border inflation. Overall, our study illustrates the macroeconomic trade-offs involved when unilateral trade policies interact with integrated global supply chains.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Shojaeddini, E. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Shojaeddini, E. (6/10/2026)
Visits: 127
- Resources and circular economy
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Supply chains


Attachments
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.


Public Access
No documents have been attached.

Restricted Access
  pdf File format GTAP_Shojaeddini.pdf  (1.9 MB)   Replicated: 3 time(s)
       (Restricted to: GTAP 11 Satellite Data and Utilities Subscriber)




Special Instructions
No instructions have been specified.


Comments (0 posted)
You must log in before entering comments.

No comments have been posted.



Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM