GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7867 |
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"From Barriers to Gateways: An Economic Impact Analysis of Kazakhstan’s E-Customs Reforms (1995–2030)" Authors: Turakulov, Valijon, Sariya Kazbekova, Altay Zeinelgabdin and Gulmira Yessenova Abstract What generates welfare gains from digital customs reform: the elimination of time wasted at borders, or the reduction of administrative fees extracted from traders? This paper addresses that identification problem for Kazakhstan, a landlocked transition economy advancing toward a “Digital by Default” customs ecosystem by 2030. Using a GTAP v11 Computable General Equilibrium framework calibrated with primary survey data from 165 stakeholders, we separately model import-augmenting efficiency (ams), transit efficiency (atm), and administrative rent reduction (tms) shocks across three scenarios. Aggregate results confirm that technical efficiency improvements generate $292.99 million in welfare gains (99.4% of the $294.68 million total under combined reform), establishing that border time reduction functions as productivity enhancement. Sector-level decomposition reveals meaningful heterogeneity: three of five sectors (Agriculture and Food, Textiles, Logistics and Services) are rent-dominated, while Light Manufacturing drives aggregate efficiency dominance through the highestams shock (1.24%) and the only substantial atm gain (0.50%). Combined reform yields a 0.18% real GDP increase and $71.67 million in regional spillovers. These results reframe the policy prescription from a uniform digital-platform mandate to a sector-calibrated strategy: time-minimizing investment for manufacturing supply chains, complemented by targeted cost reduction where administrative fee structures remain the binding constraint. |
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- Domestic policy analysis - Economic development - Economic growth - Infrastructure - Non-Tariff barriers - Trade in textiles and wearing apparel - Asia (South-Central) |
| Attachments |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Kazakhstan_Conference_Draft_GEA2026 (278.0 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
