GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"The effect of African Continental Free Trade Area on South African economy" Authors: Molepo, Solly, Phelelani Sibiya, Bhekani Zondo, Buhlebemvelo Dube, Antti Simola, Joseph Kau and Heinrich Bohlmann Abstract The study examines the impact of African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on South African economy. The policy shocks adopted in the study include the reduction of tariff rates on non-sensitive products by 90%, then followed by another reduction of 97% and finally it is erosion of tariffs and non-tariff measures for intra-Africa trade. This study applied the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model version 7, using database version 11. The sectors were aggregated from 65 to 38, while regions were aggregated from 141 to 42. The preliminary results indicate that implementation of trade liberalisation under the AfCFTA will bring an economy-wide impact on the South Africa economy. However, reduction in tariff leads to lower revenues derived from the custom duties. Most African states, especially the less developed countries depend on custom duties as one of their biggest contributors towards the national revenue. South Africa is expected to realise overall (Equivalence Variation) gain as results of diversified markets created intra-Africa trade. The total outputs of selected industries are expected to increase, which translates into positive multipliers through the entire economy. South Africa is competitive producers of agriculture, manufactured and other commodities in Africa, which stands a chance to benefit from positive trade balance. The findings aim to inform trade and development policy space by reflecting the effects to trade liberalisation under the AfCFTA. |
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- Agricultural policies - Domestic policy analysis - Economic growth - Africa (Southern) |
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Public Access  Paper (347.0 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
