GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7915 |
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"Liberation day or the beginning of isolation? The fifth global trade war (Trump 2.0): An analysis using a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model" Authors: El Hajoui, Yassine and Nabil El Baouchari Abstract This article analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of the strategic trade war initiated by the United States on April 2, 2025, using a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model calibrated on the GTAP 11 database and the CEPII 2022 scenario. Three strategic configurations are examined: a bilateral U.S.–China confrontation with third-country neutrality, a U. S.-led economic isolation of China, and a Chinese-led trade coalition against the United States. Results show that bilateral confrontation generates losses for both parties, that U.S.-led isolation produces net gains for Washington and a sharp contraction in China, and that a Chinese coalition reverses this dynamic at the expense of the U.S. economy. These findings suggest that the decisive variable in this conflict is not tariff levels per se, but the capacity to isolate one's rival through strategic alliance mobilization - pointing to the emergence of a new form of economic cold war in which geoeconomic preeminence depends on the density and cohesion of trade partnerships. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- GTAP Data Base and extensions - Bridging CGE and new quantitative trade (NQT) literature - Economic geography - Preferential trading arrangements - Partial and general equilibrium models |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7915 (27.3 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
