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GTAP Events: 12th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis: Organized Sessions

The following organized sessions have been accepted into the conference.

Dynamic baselines
Organized by: Lionel Fontagné

The use of dynamic CGE models to assess the impact of various economic policies has highlighted the need for full-fledged baseline scenarios encompassing changes in the labour force, productivity, and growth in the various regions of the world economy, for periods up to 20 years. However, this raises a lot of issues. Firstly, factor growth assumptions are indeed important (labour force, savings/investment and depreciation) as these interact with productivity to give a growth decomposition. But beyond this, there are inherent problems to the construction of the baseline. Behavioural/technical assumptions are important: parameters can simply be calibrated to base year data, or alternative assumptions can be made. Different models may need different baselines (e.g. in terms of productivity) to reproduce the same expected path of the world economy. Also, GDP forecasts used to build the baseline might be derived from assumptions inconsistent with the core assumptions of the CGE used for the experiment. Lastly, the outcome may be sensitive to closure rules. All in all, despite potential benefits in terms of cost and comparability of results, from sharing a common set of forecasts for these variables, such a ready-made baseline might be hardly appropriate to the different models. Secondly, the path of endogenous variables may not be satisfactory in the baseline: trade might increase too slowly; the price of natural resources may be at odds with forecasts made e.g. with energy models; the sustainability of current account imbalances observed in the base year for 20 years is questionable. Four invited papers will address these questions and stress the strategies adopted. They will hopefully also address the pending difficulties and help drawing a research agenda in this field. A single general discussant will comment on the four presentations.

A Baseline for the GDyn Model
Presented by: Walmsley, Terrie

Back to the future: Dynamic baselines in CGE modeling
Presented by: van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

The dynamic baseline in USAGE
Presented by: Koopman, Bob

The influence of baseline assumptions for trade policy assessments: an illustration with MIRAGE
Presented by: Decreux, Yvan

Unilateral trade liberalization, Bilateral FTAs and RTAs and Domestic Tax Reforms: Implications for Welfare and Poverty
Organized by: Selim Raihan

This session will focus on the impact of unilateral trade liberalisation or bilateral FTAs and RTAs on economic growth and poverty in the developing countries using single country CGE models or GTAP Model. There will be three papers, two o them will deal with doemstic trade and tax policy reform (in Uruguay and South Africa) and one paper will focus on India-EU FTA and its implications for the low income economies.

Assessing the impact of the 2007 Tax Reform on poverty and inequality in Uruguay
Presented by: LlambĂ­, Cecilia

EU-India FTA: Potential Implications for Low Income Countries
Presented by: Raihan, Selim

Trade policy, fiscal constraint and the long term impact of government expenditures
Presented by: Decaluwe, Bernard

Long term trends in agri-food trade and the challenges for the internationa trading system
Organized by: Alexander Sarris

The overriding issue that will permeate the session is that the pattern and form of global agricultural trade will be changing in the next forty years or so, perhaps accelerating trends that are already observable, and this may necessitate the adaptation of existing rules, or the creation of new rules of international exchange. The session will try to bring out the various relevant trends and issues and discuss the areas where pressures for rule change can be observed.

Climate Change and the Future of Global Agriculture
Presented by: Beghin, John

Evolving Structure of World Agricultural Trade and Requirements for New World Trade Rules
Presented by: Sarris, Alexander

The Political Economy of Agricultural Policy: Global Trends and Future Prospects
Presented by: Masters, Will

NTMs and Trade Facilitation
Organized by: Michael Ferrantino

This session features new results on the economic effects of NTMs, particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT).

An Analysis of BSE Restrictions on Beef Imports From The United States And Canada
Presented by: Tsigas, Marinos

An Empirical Assessment of Market Access and SPS Regulations on U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Imports
Presented by: Karov, Vuko

Movement to Port: The Neglected Markup
Presented by: Ferrantino, Michael

Recent developments in CGE modelling of FDI
Organized by: Gaspar Frontini

The session intends to bring together academics and policy experts to discuss recent progress in economic modelling of FDI in a CGE framework. It will be centred around two main issues: i) database development; ii) CGE modelling approaches.

Does Foreign Investment Shape Trade Policies? A CGE Assessment of the Doha stalemate
Presented by: Laborde, David

Linking FDI restrictions to cross-border trade in services
Presented by: Francois, Joseph

Modeling cross-border investment in CGE: alternatives and mechanisms
Presented by: Lakatos, Csilla

The impact of globalization on FDIs : an empirical assessment for Central Eastern European Countries
Presented by: Vechiu, Natalia

Services Trade Liberalization
Organized by: Marinos Tsigas

The liberalization of trade in services is a topic of growing importance. As global demand for services increases and as services become increasingly transferable across borders, there is a great need to understand their economic mechanisms, particularly the ways in which they may differ from goods. From a policy perspective, barriers to services have become increasingly prominent in trade negotiations as other barriers - such as to trade in goods - decrease. There are two key steps in the analysis of trade liberalization: first, estimating the size of the trade barriers, and second analyzing the effects of these barriers on the economy. In both aspects, services present a unique set of issues. Research in services faces the challenge of a pronounced lack of detailed data. From this relative paucity of data, estimates of the size of trade barriers must be obtained, as well as estimates of the effect of removing such trade barriers. The first paper investigates several recently articulated methods of computing trade barriers. The second estimates the ad valorem tariff equivalents of the regulatory barriers for selected middle income countries for several different services industries. In addition to the efforts to measure the size of trade barriers, there are many unsettled theoretical issues of how removal of services trade barriers might affect trade, investment, and labor employment. In particular, there remain many questions regarding the ways in which trade in services should be modeled differently from trade in goods. The third presents a model of imperfect competition and obtain estimates for the welfare effects of allowing foreign competition into the economy. Crucially they investigate the role of different market structures (monopoly, oligopoly, cartel and monopolistic competition), forms that are particularly prevalent in the services sector. The fourth constructs a model wherein companies in the insurance industry require headquarters services, and use the model to investigate the implications of foreign trade barrier reductions on the home market.

Entry Barriers and the Extensive Margin: Estimating Trade Restrictiveness from Trade Flows and Lack Thereof
Presented by: Nordas, Hildegunn

Modal Estimates of Services Barriers
Presented by: Dihel, Nora

Regulation, Market Structure and Service Trade Liberalization
Presented by: Konan, Denise Eby

U.S. Labor Employment Effects of Liberalization in Foreign Insurance Markets
Presented by: Fukui, Tani

The Economics of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean
Organized by: Carlos De Miguel

The 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that for the world, the benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs. The study acknowledged that the impacts and costs of inaction on climate change and the costs and opportunities arising from action on climate change are not evenly distributed. Regional Economics of Climate Change Studies are needed to provide this analysis at the local level, allowing countries and regions to identify the implications of action on climate change for their economies and specific socio-economic groups in preparation for negotiations on a global deal in Copenhagen in December 2009. Although climate change is a global problem, it requires a regional and local set of answers. Studies designed to provide this information, covering the likely impacts and potential adaptation and mitigation response are urgently required for civil servants. As the region is likely to be one of the big losers from climate change, it needs a stronger international climate change framework and global action to control emissions.

Climate Change and Reduction of CO2 Emissions: Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean
Presented by: Ludena, Carlos

Climate Change in Latin America: Impacts and Mitigation Policy Options
Presented by: Medvedev, Denis

Energy shocks, fiscal policy and CO2 emissions in Chile
Presented by: O'Ryan, Raul

The Economics of Climate Change in Brazil
Presented by: Haddad, Eduardo