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GTAP Events: 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis: Organized Sessions

The following organized sessions have been accepted into the conference.

Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Responses from the Asian Developing Countries
Organized by: Selim Raihan

Developing countries need to understand the economic and social outcomes of the financial crisis in order to provide appropriate policy responses and social protection to the most vulnerable segment of population. As the pass-through effect gets transmitted at the micro level, the household members are forced to cut back their current consumption standards. The coping strategies include: reduction in food expenditure (leading to malnutrition), reduction in spending on education and health, seeking multiple occupations, working more number of hours, and increased child labour. The currently available data indicates that the ongoing crisis has led to a decline in export receipts, official development assistance and foreign investment in developing economies. This session will consist of three papers from Asian developing economies (Bangladesh, Philippines and Pakistan) which aim at providing assessments on the vulnerability of these countries to the shock resulting from the global financial crisis. These papers are intended to contribute at informing policymakers, development partners, and civil society organizations on the potential adverse outcomes, and at implementing appropriate measures to mitigate its effects. These three papers involve ex ante analysis on the impact of the crisis and of policy responses at macro, meso and micro levels. This work was carried out with financial and scientific support from the Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research Network with funding from the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID).

Global Economic Crisis: Implications for the Bangladesh Economy
Presented by: Raihan, Selim

Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia
Presented by: De, Prabir

Global financial crisis, gender and poverty in the Philippines
Presented by: Corong, Erwin

Global Financial Crisis, MDGs and Choices for Pakistan’s Inclusive Development
Presented by: Ahmed, Vaqar

Linking PE and GE models: the case of combined application of CAPRI and GTAP for multi-scale analysis of agricultural and environmental policies
Organized by: Wolfgang Britz

There is an increasing need for integrated impact assessment of domestic policies at global scale. In contrast to trade policies, domestic, sector specific policies such as the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy are still regularly analyzed with a regional focus, paying little attention on global impacts and spill-over effects. The vivid discussion of emissions leakages and induced land use change from GHG abatement policies such as bio-fuel mandates clearly demonstrates the need for a global perspective in domestic policy assessments. However, global models typically operate on aggregation levels regarding space, products, processes and policies less detailed than what specialised models for specific regions and sectors are able to offer, and what is often deemed necessary for a realistic impact assessment by stakeholders. As a consequence, there is an increasing need for combined application of models to exploit their comparative advantages. The organized session is proposed to discuss recent combined applications of GTAP and the CAPRI modelling system (, a partial equilibrium model with a focus on the EU. By selecting existing examples of pooled model applications, the organizers intend to combine an applied and methodological perspective.

Conceptual Challenges for the Integration of Agricultural Sector and General Equilibrium Models: the databases of CAPRI and GTAP
Presented by: Mueller, Marc

How Green are Agricultural Set Asides? An Analysis at the Global and Regional Levels
Presented by: Pelikan, Janine

The CAPRI modelling system, an overview
Presented by: Britz, Wolfgang

Economic integration, trade preferences and the impact of the crisis
Organized by: Lucian Cernat

This session contains four papers in total, all of which focus on different countries or sub-set of countries and thus provide a broad geographical coverage. Three papers assess the effects of reciprocal and non-reciprocal trade preferences while the fourth paper evaluates the impact of the trade shock associated with the global economic crisis on labour and household. The three papers assessing the effects of trade arrangements further do so from different perspectives using different methods. The first paper analyses the effects of EU and US non-reciprocal trade preferences in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework taking into account the existence of trade preferences and making use of detailed data on the use of such preferences. The second paper examines the impact of EU reciprocal Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with three Mediterranean countries on both the extensive and the intensive margin of trade in a gravity setting. The third paper studies the effects of so called "deep" integration in the case of the EU and selected countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) by simulating the effects of the latter's legislative and regulatory approximation with EU law in a CGE context. Finally, the fourth paper looks into the effects of the economic crisis on trade flows and the subsequent effects on employment and income in Brazil. This latter analysis may thus offer a general idea of the vulnerability of the potential gains from trade liberalization, potentially as estimated in the first three papers, when faced with external shocks such as the crisis.

Economic Integration and the two margins of trade: An application to the Euro-Mediterranean agreements
Presented by: Bensassi, Sami

Mid-term Evaluation of the EU’s Generalised System of Preferences
Presented by: Méndez Parra, Maximiliano

The Impact of Crisis-Related Changes in Trade Flows on Employment, Incomes, Regional and Sectoral Development in Brazil
Presented by: Peters, Ralf

The value of trade preferences
Presented by: Mitaritonna, Maria Cristina

Revised Labor Statistics for the GTAP Database
Organized by: Marinos Tsigas

Wages and employment are an integral part of general equilibrium analyses of trade issues. This research often relies on labor payments that are split by industry and by workers’ skill level. The GTAP database is one of the best resources for applied general equilibrium (AGE) modeling. However, its statistics split labor employment within industries to two categories: skilled and unskilled workers and they are based on statistics from 1970–92. The purpose of this Session is to present and evaluate revised labor statistics for the GTAP database and diagnose their influence on applied general equilibrium analysis. The first paper in this Session provides a new set of labor data that is based on more recent statistics and a larger set of countries. The authors update the GTAP labor data using statistics from the International Labor Organization (ILO). They also expand the GTAP labor data by providing separate price (wages) and quantity (employment) information and changing the skill definition from skilled/unskilled to a split across five occupational categories. The second paper proposes an approach to skill split data that can be used in a computable general equilibrium context, in particular when working with the GTAP dataset. The third paper diagnoses the influence of revised labor statistics in GTAP simulated effects.

Labor Statistics for the GTAP Database
Presented by: Weingarden, Alison

Trade with China and the Impact on Relative Wages in Industrial Economies
Presented by: Mirza, Tasneem

Data and analysis of global economic integration
Organized by: Marinos Tsigas

Reductions in transportation and communication costs along with liberalization of trade, finance and political barriers have significantly affected global trade relationships. Economies have become more integrated, with a vast potential for trade to facilitate sustainable and inclusive growth and development. Two important aspects of the new global economic reality are the integration of China in the global economy and the proliferation of transnational supply chains. The purpose of this Organized Session is to highlight a recently developed dataset which facilitates economic analysis of the new commercial reality. The first presentation extends the recent literature on value-added trade in global supply chains measured with global and regional input-output tables. It contains a unified framework in the context of Hummels, Ishii, and Yi’s (2001) original measures of vertical specialization. The paper includes a new decomposition of domestic value-added traded in global supply chains, a focus on indirect value-added trade via third countries, and comparisons of global supply chains across regions and industries. In the second presentation, an applied general equilibrium (AGE) framework that explicitly models transnational supply chains and export processing zones in China is used to simulate the effects of the China-ASEAN free trade agreement. The third presentation showcases a time-series dataset that integrates global trade, production and consumption statistics in a consistent accounting framework. This dataset provides a benchmark for dynamic AGE model calibration and baseline validation. In addition, it is particularly useful for the analysis of vertical specialization in global production and the interactions between different industries at different locations that contribute to the same industrial value chain.

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
Presented by: Tsigas, Marinos

A Time Series Database for Global Trade, Production and Consumption Linkages
Presented by: Wang, Zhi

Value Chains in Global Production Networks: An Application of Global Input-Output Tables
Presented by: Powers, William

The Potential Implications of the Special Safeguard Mechanism
Organized by: Amanda M. Countryman

The SSM was a key issue in the July 2008 failure to reach agreement in the WTO negotiations. Given the substantial potential gains available under these negotiations, the fact that the negotiations were unable to proceed for lack of consensus on this issue highlights its importance to many WTO members. The breakdown of negotiations on this issue is primarily attributed to inadequate analysis of its operation and its implications. The availability of analysis was certainly limited by the fact that the proposed SSM is one of the most technically complex aspects of the entire Modalities, and was presented to Ministers only days before the Ministerial meeting. The SSM attempts to deal with the variation in prices, rather than merely the level of prices (as with tariffs), which adds to the lack of analysis available at the time of negotiation. The SSM includes two triggers, one based on the price of imports and one on the volume of imports; again, adding to the complexity of the proposal. The papers in this organized session address the potential implications of the SSM to inform governments and policy makers of the effects that the policy may have on the global economy.

Frequency and Duration Analysis of the Special Safeguard Mechanism
Presented by: Leister, Amanda

Potential Implications of the Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) in Agriculture
Presented by: Martin, Will

Triggers, Remedies, and Tariff Cuts: Assessing the Impact of a Special Safeguard Mechanism for Developing Countries
Presented by: Grant, Jason

Sectoral FDI
Organized by: Tani Fukui

In this organized session we will present a set of papers that discuss the drivers of sectoral FDI stocks and flows. There has been considerable research examining the drivers of FDI at the aggregate level; there has been less work done at the sector level but much of this has pointed to large differences across sectors particularly between manufacturing and services. We present a set of three papers that each attempt – from different perspectives – to contribute to our understanding of sector level FDI in the context of the broader economy. One examines the causes (drivers) of FDI, a second examines its effects, and a third describes them more fully via a new database.

Comparative Advantage FDI? A Host Country Perspective
Presented by: Waldkirch, Andreas

Sector Specific Foreign Direct Investment: A Database
Presented by: Fukui, Tani

Sectoral Impact of Barriers to Trade in Banking Services: A Cost and Profit-based Approach
Presented by: Dinh, Huong