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GTAP Resource #1199

"Using a Highly Disaggregated Multi-regional Single-country Model to Analyse the Impacts of the 2002-03 Drought on Australia"
by Horridge, Mark, John Madden and Glyn Wittwer

TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) is a "bottoms-up" model of the Australian economy which models each region as a separate economy. This model was created specifically to deal with highly disaggregated regional data while providing a quick solution to simulations. This makes it a useful tool for examining the regional impacts of shocks that may be region-specific. We include some details of how we prepared the TERM database, using a national input-output table, together with regional data showing output (for agriculture) and employment (in other sectors) for each of 144 sectors and 57 regions [the Australian statistical divisions]. Using a 38 sector, 45 region aggregation of the model, we simulate the short-run effects of the Australian drought of 2002-03, which was the most widespread for 20 years. The effects on some statistical divisions are extreme, with income losses of up to 20 per cent as a consequence of drought. Despite the relatively small share of GDP that agriculture has in Australia, the drought reduces GDP by 1.7 per cent, and contributes to a decline in unemployment and a worsening of the balance of trade.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2003 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 6th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, The Hague, The Netherlands
Date: 2003
Created: Horridge, M. (3/26/2003)
Updated: Bacou, M. (4/7/2003)
Visits: 3,233
- Climate change policy

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