GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #1227 |
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"Export Growth and Poverty" by van Schaaijk, Marein and Bas van Tuijl Abstract The objective of this paper is to quantify the effects of increased growth of exports on the numbers below the poverty line and their net real income. The methodology consists of three steps, using two models. In the first step a macro economic model (Macroabc) will be used to quantify the effects of an (assumed) increased growth of exports on macro economic variables as growth of labour in the formal sector, wage rate, consumer prices, number of unemployed and/or number of labour force in the informal sector, decrease of government deficit. In the second step assumptions will be made how government will spend its additional income in tax reductions and maybe other policies geared to improved the purchasing power of the poor. In the third step a poverty module (Micromacrosim) will be used to translate these macro developments (labour force in formal sector/ unemployed or informal sector; wage rate; consumer price) to change in the numbers below the poverty line and their net real income growth. The poverty module uses as input the output of the macro model, data with a break down of formal and informal labour force into gross income classes; and information concerning the gross net regime. We can use data from Macroabc models for several countries (Indonesia, Kenya, Poland, the Netherlands, Curaçao, Suriname) and poverty modules consistent to Macroabc models are already available for Kenya and Curaçao. (See www.micromacroconsultants.com for more info: on line multi media slide shows to Macroabc models and Micromacrosim for Curaçao and for Kenya). In this paper we will take the small island Curaçao as an example to demonstrate how to link macro economic and micro poverty analysis. We will also discuss how this analysis could be done for bigger countries like Kenya and Indonesia. The increase of the purchasing power of the poor and the decrease of their numbers can be affected on three ways: 1) macro growth, 2) income redistribution via taxes etc. by government, and 3) policies directly affecting the poor. In this paper we will combine 1 and 2 and stress the importance of 3) Expected findings: this paper will quantify how export growth can directly and indirectly decrease the numbers below the poverty line, also including the transmission of additional government revenues to the poor. |
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- Economic analysis of poverty |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Macroabc (145.8 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s) PDF Version (507.9 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
