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GTAP Resource #1754

"Alternative Scenarios and Strategic Interactions Between Developed and Developing Countries in the Agricultural Trade Negotiations of the Doha Round: A Reappraisal"
by Antimiani, Alessandro, Piero Conforti and Luca Salvatici

The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 6.0 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions between the possible strategies of two wide country groups – developed and developing countries on the basis of game theory, and to search for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Created: Conforti, P. (5/1/2005)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/21/2005)
Visits: 3,622
- Baseline development

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