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GTAP Resource #2004

"More or less ambition in the Doha Round? Modeling the development impact of trade proposals"
by Bouët, Antoine, David Orden and Simon Mevel

What is at stake in the standoff between the United States and Europe over agriculture in the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies depend heavily on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this study we compare different scenarios for the Doha agriculture negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals currently on the table from the European Union (EU), the United States. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the United States and the EU—based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals—delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index. We focus the impact study on developing countries.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2006 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Date: 2006
Created: Bouët, A. (4/28/2006)
Updated: Bouët, A. (4/28/2006)
Visits: 5,914
No keywords have been specified.

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