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GTAP Resource #2098

"Economywide Simulations of Ethiopian MDG Strategies"
by Lofgren, Hans and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla

Operating with limited domestic and foreign resources, and highly dependent on foreign aid, Ethiopia faces difficult choices between spending, for example, in public infrastructure versus human development. This paper uses MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations) to analyze the consequences of such spending decisions on the evolution of major social and economic indicators during the period up to 2015, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for poverty, education, health, water, and sanitation. The model is built around a SAM for fiscal year 2002, complemented by a database focused on education and other MDG-related information for the same year. The simulations are designed to better understand the trade-offs between spending on human development (with a long-run positive impact on production as the educational level of the labor force improves) and spending on roads, energy, and other forms of public infrastructure (which has a more direct impact on productivity and production). The simulations are carried out both with a fixed foreign aid budget (in present-value terms) and with alternative levels of foreign aid, showing the impact on the above-mentioned indicators as well as possible Dutch Disease effects.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2006 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Created: Diaz-Bonilla, C. (5/1/2006)
Updated: Diaz-Bonilla, C. (5/2/2006)
Visits: 3,070
No keywords have been specified.

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