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GTAP Resource #2103

"MAMS -- a framework for analyzing MDG and poverty reduction strategies"
by Lofgren, Hans and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla

The declaration of the 2000 UN Millennium Summit, signed by almost 200 countries, established a set of ambitious international development targets in the areas of poverty, hunger, education, health, the environment and gender equality. For many countries, especially those with the lowest incomes, the achievement of these objectives requires a combination of policies promoting rapid pro-poor growth and a large expansion of services in the areas of health, education, and water-sanitation. The pursuit of such strategies may have strong economywide effects due to the need for large increases in government recurrent and capital spending, foreign aid, and domestic financing. Labor market repercussions may be strong as demand for relatively educated labor expands at the same time as school enrollment grows rapidly and, with a lag, the supply of educated labor starts to catch up. In order to assess and contribute to the better design of MDG strategies, the World Bank has recently developed MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations). The model, which is equally applicable to the analysis of strategies for poverty reduction, is now being applied in a growing number of countries. MAMS may be classified as an extended dynamic-recursive CGE model. The key extension is the inclusion of a set of logistic functions that link MDG and educational outcomes to a set of determinants that include relevant services (provided by government and non-government suppliers), other MDGs (to capture synergies), availability of infrastructure, household welfare, and wage incentives (influencing behavior in education). Labor supplies, disaggregated by level of educational achievement, are endogenous and linked to the educational module. The model tracks domestic and foreign debts, borrowing and interest payments. It may be solved recursively, year by year, or simultaneously for the entire planning horizon, permitting forward-looking behavior by the government (and, potentially, by other agents). This paper, which serves as an introduction to the following two papers, will discuss the motivation behind the development of MAMS, the general modeling approach, and a detailed discussion of the equations of the model.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2006 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Date: 2006
Created: Lofgren, H. (5/2/2006)
Updated: Lofgren, H. (5/2/2006)
Visits: 3,272
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