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GTAP Resource #2104

"The Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia"
by Fang, Cheng, Jian Zhang and Boubaker BenBelhassen

The number of hungry people in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia is increasing, putting the Millennium Development Summit (MDG) goal of halving world hunger by 2015 at risk. Progress in reducing hunger in these two regions in the next decade is the key to achieving the MDG goals.

This paper uses a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impact of trade liberalization on food security in these two regions. Several scenarios have been designed to examine how different trade policies giving special treatment to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) could potentially influence the impact of globalization on welfare and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. The results generated by CGE have been used to calculate the changes in the number of hungry people by using food balances, food distribution and minimum nutrition requirement databases for each country/region.

The results of the food security indicators suggest that the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on food security is negative in both regions. These indicators improve significantly and become positive with the implementation of trade reforms consistent with the country’s developmental stages. In most cases, the impact of trade liberalization on food production and food availability is positive. Consequently, the number of hungry people will be reduced with greater trade liberalization.

Trade reforms in the manufacturing sector have opposing influences on food security in the two regions: with a significantly positive affect on food security in South Asia, but a substantially negative affect on that of Sub-Saharan Africa. This result strongly suggests that very far-reaching preferential policies for Sub-Saharan Africa and non-trade support (such as development aid) are required to improve, or at the very least to prevent the situation from worsening, the food security with trade liberalization in the manufacturing sector.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2006 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Date: 2006
Created: Fang, C. (5/2/2006)
Updated: Fang, C. (6/19/2006)
Visits: 3,128
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