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GTAP Resource #2368

"Agriculture in the Doha Development Agenda: An Opportunity for Latin America ? "
by Giordano, Paolo, Maximiliano Méndez Parra and Masakazu Watanuki

Agriculture trade liberalization has proven to be a major stumbling block bringing the multilateral trade negotiation process to a deadlock. Diverging negotiation positions still persist between and within groups of industrialized and developing countries. Reaching an agreement on agriculture is key to conclude the Doha Round, particularly for Latin American countries that display comparative advantages in this sector.

Despite the existence of a burgeoning literature aimed at evaluating the global gains from the Doha Round, only few studies assess global agricultural trade reforms considering scenarios based on tariff reduction formulas. Moreover most of them do not explicitly consider the majority of Latin American countries. This study aims at filling this gap, developing a new multi-region static CGE model which incorporates several innovative features in scenario design, database and modeling.

The simulations suggest a number of important policy conclusions: i) Latin America as whole may reap large gains from agriculture trade liberalization as trade gains may be large for certain countries and commodities; ii) there is nevertheless a great heterogeneity among countries and liberalization scenarios, whereby national welfare gains may be asymmetric and even negative for certain countries; iii) the market access pillar of trade negotiations is the dominant factor driving trade and welfare effects, while the reduction of trade-distorting domestic support and export subsidies is likely to generate small or even negative effects in certain cases; iv) the trade and welfare effects of the simulated scenarios are very close suggesting that a successful conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations is at reach; v) nevertheless the inclusion of sensitive and special products into simulations scenarios alters significantly the results for individual countries and their treatment will probably drive the final outcome of multilateral trade negotiations for Latin America.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2007
Created: Giordano, P. (4/14/2007)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/3/2007)
Visits: 1,882
- Economic growth
- North America
- South America
- Central America
- Caribbean

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