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GTAP Resource #2519

"Scenar 2020: scenario study on the future of agriculture and the rural world"
by Nowicki, Peter, Hans van Meijl, Andrea Knierim, Martin Banse and John Helming

The Scenar 2020 study aims at identifying of future trends and driving forces that will be the framework for the European agricultural and rural economy on the horizon of 2020. Scenar 2020 provides a systematic review of the primary variables that rural and agricultural policies have to take into account. These are the rural demographic patterns, the agricultural technology, the agricultural markets, and the natural and social constraints on land use that are likely to exist in 2020.
Social and economic factors, both conditioned by technology, have a bearing on these primary variables, and these factors are both endogenous and exogenous. Technology determines what is possible in every domain, and social (consumer) demand determines what is economically viable. Social demand – as it affects the agricultural sector – does not only reflect consumer preferences in terms of food, but also environmental and health concerns, including the commitment by society as a whole to the wise use of natural resources (water, soil) and biodiversity preservation. It is these environmental and health concerns that define the natural and social constraints on land use. World markets and local production costs – including compensation measures that may offset operating charges – will inevitably both determine what is economically feasible in the EU and direct agricultural production to the geographical locations worldwide that provide sustainable livelihoods for farmers, or the greatest return on investment for agro-industrial enterprises.

The study was reviewed in-depth by six independent experts during two workshops. Three economic models (LEITAP, ESIM, CAPRI) and one land-use simulation model (CLUE-s) are used.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Published
By/In: European communities
Date: 2007
Created: van Meijl, H. (10/19/2007)
Updated: Batta, G. (10/19/2007)
Visits: 2,195
- Agricultural policies
- Economic growth
- Labor market issues
- Technological change
- Baseline development
- European Union

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