GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #2614 |
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"A Global Baltic - Potential Gains from Trade Liberalisation in the Baltic Sea States" by Kinnman, Susanna and Magnus Lodefalk Abstract What would a “Global Baltic”, liberalised to the rest of the world, mean for national income and trade patterns of the Baltic Sea region? Although the countries have displayed substantial economic growth and trading activity over the last decade, facilitated by politico-economic reforms, significant trade barriers still exist. Their removal might further boost the economies of the region. The aim of this study is to analyse the potential effects from unilateral trade liberalisation, using a CGE-model with monopolistic competition. Besides addressing the “usual suspects” (tariffs, subsidies and services barriers) and trade facilitation in the main simulation, we also address some non-tariff-measures (NTM) in a separate simulation. The NTM-simulation is based on recently released data. The effect of a “Global Baltic” would be a substantial boost to national income and trade of the region: a 1 and 0.9 percent increase in regional income, in the main and the NTM-scenario, respectively. Particularly strong results are found for the group of emerging economies. The largest income gains stem from a country’s own liberalisation. With respect to the different simulation elements, trade facilitation and reductions in NTMs bring the major sources of gains. In the main as well as the NTM scenario, income effects are primarily due to elimination of dead-weight losses caused by rules and regulations at, or behind the border and more efficient allocation of resources. The income effects from scale economies are slightly negative in both scenarios on an aggregate level. On a country level, the results show that different reforms create different incentives for production, and that the net-effect on a country’s national income will to a large extent be related to which sectors are expanding/contracting. Structurally, the expected joint effect of the two simulation scenarios is a move towards services and industrial production and export. |
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- Economic development - Europe (Northern) - Europe (Eastern) - European Union |
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Public Access  2008 Conference Paper (201.0 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
