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GTAP Resource #2735

"Regionalism versus multilateralism: assessing tje impact of free-trade agreements between EU and Asian countries"
by Antimiani, Alessandro, Luca Salvatici, Federica Santuccio and Maria Cristina Mitaritonna

The European Union (EU) is the world’s largest trader. Given that the enthusiasm associated with the launch of the Doha Round in 2001 has dissipated as these negotiations have repeatedly stalled, a fundamental rethink of the ends and means of European trade policy is underway. In 2006 the EU decided to abandon its moratorium on negotiating new free trade agreements.
In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the effects of the possible agreements between the EU and the Asian countries. We want to evaluate the impact of the free trade agreements by themselves, their mutual compatibility as well as their relations with the larger agenda of multilateral trade liberalization. As a matter of fact, regional trade agreements are controversial in economics, not simply because of the classic (so-called ‘Vinerian’) view that they can sometimes reduce trade by diverting it, rather than creating it, but also because of the unresolved disagreements over when a regional trade agreement is likely to precede, rather than preclude, more global agreements.
These simulations has been carried out using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model with reference to a 2004 baseline scenario.
In order to assess whether the bilateral agreements are compatible with multilateral liberalization, we carry out the same simulations with a different baseline including a possible WTO agreement consistent with the proposals presently on the table of the Doha Round negotiations.

Finally, we simulate a global free trade scenario in order to get a benchmark to be used in the assessment of the previous results. More specifically, we compare the outcomes of regional liberalizations with the free trade one in terms of “structural convergence”, that is assessing the similarity in patterns of output and trade adjustments ensuing from different trade policies.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2008 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland
Date: 2008
Created: Antimiani, A. (4/15/2008)
Updated: Antimiani, A. (7/7/2008)
Visits: 2,866
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Agricultural policies
- Asia (East)
- Asia (Southeast)
- Asia (South-Central)

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