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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3236

"Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan"
by Siddig, Khalid


Abstract
The latest episode of the armed conflict between Northern and Southern Sudan erupted in 1983 and ended with the signing of the "Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)" in 2005. The CPA allows for a referendum on independence for South Sudan in 2011. A similar scenario is possible for Darfur, where an armed conflict broke out in 2003 over demands for greater decentralization and development in the region. The peace agreement between the central government and the Eastern Sudan region continues to be fragile and the risk of escalation of across the border spillovers of conflicts with Uganda and Chad persists. The USA, EU, among other global players, are putting pressure on the Khartoum government to change its policies. Economic sanctions are among the tools used by the U.S. government while encouraging others follow suit.

This paper investigates the response of the Sudanese economy to eliminating trade flows with the EU in the first phase and with East-Asia in the second. It discusses the changes in the macro-indicators, trade variables, and welfare measures that would result. Moreover, it assesses the potential trade diversion and resource reallocation due to sanctions in each phase. To simulate these scenarios, detailed economic databases for Sudan, EU, East-Asia, and the rest of the world are needed. For this purpose, GTAP Africa database and the standard GTAP model are employed. The 57 sectors of Africa database are aggregated to ten sectors and the regions four including Sudan, the EU, East Asia, and the Rest of the world.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Version:
Created: Siddig, K. (4/11/2010)
Updated: Siddig, K. (4/11/2010)
Visits: 2,402
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Domestic policy analysis
- Agricultural policies
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Middle East
- Africa (North)
- Africa (East)


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