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GTAP Resource #3283

"Implementing endogenous technological change in a global land-use model"
by Schmitz, Christoph, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Christoph Müller and Alexander Popp

For the projections of future food supply and land-use patterns technological change plays an important role. However, most land-use models use technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt for an endogenous implementation based on a surrogate measure for the state of agricultural development, called τ factor. For this purpose we relate this measure to empirical data on investments in Research & Development as well as production costs. Our estimated yield elasticity of research expenditures is 0.3 and production costs per ha increase linearly with an increasing τ factor. Implementing this in our land-use model MAgPIE ("Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment") gives us robust projections about yield growth rates in the future. Highest yield increases are obtained for Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. With observed yield growth data from FAO we validate our model results. For eight out of ten world regions the validation shows good results.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2010 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia
Date: 2010
Created: Schmitz, C. (4/14/2010)
Updated: Schmitz, C. (7/22/2011)
Visits: 3,450
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- Technological change
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions

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