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GTAP Resource #3394

"Appraising the impacts of the 2008/9 global economic crisis and of subsequent policy responses on children in Cameroon"
by Emini, Christian Arnault

This study aims at assessing the impacts of the 2008/9 global economic crisis on children in Cameroon. Especially, it focuses on the analysis of the multidimensional poverty of children and also appraises the potential effects of consecutive policy responses.
Four primary transmission channels through which the crisis has most likely shocked Cameroon economy are considered: trade, foreign direct investments, remittances, and foreign aid.
The methodological approach used is a top-down framework, which encompasses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model on the one hand, and a microsimulation module on the other hand. The CGE model is used to simulate the various scenarios of external shocks or policy responses, considering the production sectors and agents interacting within the economy, as well as the labor market structure. Simulation results generated by the CGE model are then used within the microsimulation module in order to assess the poverty impacts of scenarios on households and children.
Child-sensitive policy responses explored include, inter alia, the subsidizing the sales prices of food products, paying cash transfers to poor families; government budget being balanced through an increase of foreign grants or reduction of external reserves in both cases.
The simulation results show that, considering the monetary poverty criterion, the crisis engenders two percent increase of the number of poor children in 2008, and 4 percent increase in 2009, 2010 and 2011, compared to the Business-as-Usual scenario. The number of poor children, as regarding the calorific poverty, increases also. Moreover, the crisis reduces the school participation rate and the access of children to modern health care.
Transfer in cash to poor families is revealed here to be the most efficient of the child-sensitive policy responses simulated. The supplementary number of poor children generated by the crisis is completely annihilated thanks to this policy.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2010
Created: Emini, C. (4/16/2010)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/17/2010)
Visits: 1,268
- Domestic policy analysis
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Foreign direct investment
- Dynamic modeling
- Africa (Central)

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Special Instructions
This is a french version of the paper. The english version follows in few days.

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