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GTAP Resource #3503

"Distributional Implications of Climate Change in India"
by Skoufias, Emmanuel

Global warming is expected to heavily impact agriculture, the dominant source
of livelihood for the world's poor. Yet, little is known about the distributional im-
plications of climate change at the sub-national level. Using a simple comparative
statics framework, this paper analyzes how changes in the prices of land, labor, and
food induced by modest temperature increases over the next three decades will a ect
household-level welfare in India. We predict a substantial fall in agricultural produc-
tivity, even allowing for farmer adaptation. Yet, this decline will not translate into
a sharp drop in consumption for the majority of rural households, who derive their
income largely from wage employment. Overall, we nd that the welfare costs of
climate change fall disproportionately on the poor. This is true in urban as well as
in rural areas, but, in the latter sector, only after accounting for the e ects of rising
world cereal prices. Adaptation appears to primarily bene t the non-poor, since they
own the lion's share of agricultural land. Our results suggest that poverty in India
will be roughly 3-4 percentage points higher after thirty years of rising temperatures
than it would have been had this warming not occurred.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Version: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Version
Created: Skoufias, E. (4/1/2011)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/1/2011)
Visits: 1,841
No keywords have been specified.

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