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GTAP Resource #3529

"Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA"
by Decreux, Yvan and Lionel Fontagné

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy (MIRAGE), we simulate the impacts of the most recent drafts circulated within the WTO arena, augmented by a modest outcome of the negotiation in services.
The liberalisation of tariffs is implemented at the granular level of 5,113 products in order to take into account exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies are taken into account. We integrate dynamic gain up to 2025.
In our central scenario, we identify a USD 70 bn world GDP long run gain when agriculture and industry are liberalised, USD 85 bn gain when a 3 percent reduction of protection in services is added in certain services sectors and for the concerned countries. A rough calculation of gains associated with trade facilitation suggests a doubling of the expected gains while port efficiency adds another USD 34 bn.
In total, the 187 bn gains identified here in a scenario combining a liberalisation in trade in goods and services with trade facilitation and port efficiency, would be added to the world GDP every year in the medium term as compared with a situation without agreement. Recent proposals in terms of sectoral initiatives would add a modest USD 15bn to these gains.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Version: version 3
Created: Fontagné, L. (4/12/2011)
Updated: Fontagné, L. (11/18/2011)
Visits: 1,544
No keywords have been specified.

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