GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #3563 |
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"The International Economic Crisis and the Colombian Economy" by Arguello, Ricardo Abstract The purpose of this research is to provide an approximation to the likely effects of the crisis on the Colombian economy and to the effectiveness of policy response. For this, the most relevant transmission channels and policy measures are simulated in the setting of a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The results obtained are interesting in their own right and are in line with what could be expected given the information available on the behavior of the Colombian economy. Results indicate that lower remittances and trade changes do indeed have a negative impact on the economy, leading to negligible negative growth (after an important period of positive and sustained growth of the economy). On the export side, trade behavior largely depends upon international price movements. Most sectors experience shrinkages in export value and a few of them reap benefits. On the import side, all sectors shrink in terms of prices and quantities and, therefore, of value. Production destined to the domestic market also falls and so do prices. Wages decrease for all labor types, affecting the most unskilled labor in rural and urban areas (especially the former). Decreases in labor demand follow for most sectors, layoffs being compensated by increases in labor demand from the sectors that expand production (due to exports behavior). As a result, nominal income decreases for all household types and so does real income. However, decreases in real income tend to be lower the higher the income level of the household, in a regressive fashion. Results call into question the effectiveness of governmental intervention as judged by its intended short-term countercyclical effects. |
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- Economic growth - South America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 5304 (127.1 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
