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GTAP Resource #3644

"The impact of trade on local green and blue water scarcity - using the global landuse model MAgPIE"
by Biewald, Anne, Susanne Rolinski, Holger Hoff, Hermann Lotze-Campen and Christoph Schmitz

International trade of agricultural goods exported from water abundant to water scarce regions can, in theory, alleviate water
scarcity problems, which is a widely and controversely discussed issue in the virtual water literature. But how much can trade really help to solve water scarcity problems? And more importantly does trade of virtual water save the valuable blue water which can be rededicated to other purposes than agriculture or does it rather let green water go unused for which an application to other usages is often difficult? To address these questions we use two models: First, MAgPIE_trade (Model of Agricultural Production and and its Impact on the Environment), to give us explicit trade and production patterns for food crops. And second, LPJmL a dynamic, spatially explicit, global vegetation and agricultural model. To assess the effect of trade on agricultural production and water availability, we compare two scenarios: one in which trade is completely disabled and one with a business as usual scenario. The difference between the two scenarios tells us how production patterns change when no trade is possible. Coming from there and using the explicit virtual water contents of LPJmL, we can calculate how much virtual blue and green water is saved by allowing trade.
This information is already interesting but does not tell us if the important blue water has been saved in water abundant or in water scarce regions. Using the MAgPIE_trade output of cell-based water shadow prices (which is a measure of water scarcity), we develop an indicator of the significance of water saving. This significance indicator can answer the question if the blue virtual water is exported from water scarce cells..

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Created: Lotze-Campen, H. (4/15/2011)
Updated: Lotze-Campen, H. (4/15/2011)
Visits: 1,545
No keywords have been specified.

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