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GTAP Resource #3823

"Carbon Tariff and Its Impact on Chinas Agricultural Production and Trade"
by Lin, Hai

The research aims to analysis the impact of carbon tariff policy change in the near future. Carbon tariff policy change has become the key issue in international environmental policy making. Although it is not collected by any government now, the possible impact should be analysis for policy evaluation. Further analysis on China’s economic and welfare change could give more hints on how to deal with carbon tariff policy.

In this paper, a CGE and PE linkage model will be used here for such policy evaluation. Due to the multi-sector and worldwide impacts of the environmental related policy, GTAP model is used to analysis the impacts. Furthermore, to analysis China agricultural effects, a China partial equilibrium model - China’s Agricultural Policy Simulation and Projection Model (CAPSiM) model is used. While the GTAP-Procedure could model the policy induced effects on international and national levels, the CAPSiM-approach will be used to simulate the induced impacts on Chinas agricultural production and thus on farmers’ incomes and welfare, respectively. Linking GTAP model and PE models together by price change, the research could simulate transmission of possible impact from carbon policy change from one region on one side, to another region, mainly China, on the other side.

By evaluating the potential impacts of different carbon tariff policy change with different simulation result, the research will help us to get some result on what will happen to China’s agricultural production and trade with such policy change and give some suggestion. Preliminary results show that the impact on China’s agricultural production and trade is not very large compare to other industry. But for the poor household concerned, there are really some reductions of income for the lowest income group. So the correspondence policy change is needed for them to avoid further harm.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2012 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Geneva, Switzerland
Date: 2012
Created: Lin, H. (4/26/2012)
Updated: Lin, H. (4/26/2012)
Visits: 2,161
No keywords have been specified.

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