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GTAP Resource #4071 |
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"Japanese Manufacturing Facing the Power Crisis after Fukushima-A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with Foreign Direct Investment" by Hosoe, Nobuhiro Abstract 1. Motivation The Great East Japan Earthquake (hereinafter, the earthquake) and the subsequent tsunami hit the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station held by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and revealed the vulnerability of the nuclear power stations in Japan to earthquakes and tsunami. People lost the trust to safety of the nuclear power plants, and the regulatory authority became very reluctant to permit power companies to restart nuclear power plants stations. To make up the lost nuclear power supply, the power companies have to operate thermal power plants more often. Their fossil fuel costs push up the power generation costs and, thus, power charges. Yamazaki and Ochiai (2011) and Ishikura and Ishikawa (2011) investigate the impact of the power shortage on the regional economies with multi-regional CGE model for Japan. Tsutsumi (2012) employs a GTAP-based CGE model to quantify their impact on industrial output in the context of the world economy but does not examine their impact on the hollowing-out of the Japanese industries to overseas. The domestic industries suffer with the increases of their production costs by the power charge rise in addition to the persistent appreciation of Japanese yen triggered by the recent European sovereign debt crisis. These adverse business environments are anticipated to have the domestic manufacturing industries reallocated to other countries, such as China through foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI has been a prominent phenomenon between Japan and the neighboring Asian countries. While FDI indicates the emergence and integration of the Asian economies, it also symbolizes a fall of the Japanese economy, typically known as “hallowing-out.” Empirically, Fukao and Yuan (2001) estimate the impact of FDI on employment among Japanese industries and found that FDI creates the domestic job by exploiting resources and expanding markets abroad while FDI loses it by reducing export opportunities and increasing imports ... |
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- Dynamic modeling - Economic crisis - Foreign direct investment - Asia (East) |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM