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GTAP Resource #4087

"Impacts of increasing bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model comparison"
by Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Page Kyle, Petr Havlik, Hans van Meijl and Tomoko Hasegawa

Future scenarios from Integrated Assessment and energy modeling studies (e.g. the Energy Modelling Forum 27) have shown that meeting ambitious mitigation targets with respect to global greenhouse gas emissions requires substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. Currently, bioenergy production worldwide is dominated by first-generation biofuels, like ethanol from sugar cane, grains and sugar beets, or bio-diesel from oil crops. Current demand is mainly induced by policy mandates for blending with fossil fuels. There is obviously a direct impact on food markets, as fuel production competes with food and feed production for basically the same products. For the next decades, however, energy sector studies foresee an emergence of new technologies for converting different types of cellulosic biomass into transportation fuel and other types of secondary energy carriers. The potential for reducing GHG emissions can even be increased, if bioenergy use is combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which are expected to develop over the next decades as well.
In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global economic models with a focus on agricultural production, trade and land use change have been used to analyse a future scenario with strongly rising bioenergy demand until the year 2050. First-generation bioenergy demand is implemented along projected policy targets and kept constant after 2030. Total demand for first generation bioenergy amounts to about 6 ExaJoule (EJ) globally. Global demand for second-generation bioenergy is expected to rise to about 100 EJ in 2050. These figures are in line with a climate policy scenario to limit global warming at about 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Second-generation bioenergy can be produced from specific grass or tree crops or from forest or other residues, but these production modes are implemented in different ways in the models.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Fujimori, S. (4/9/2013)
Updated: Fujimori, S. (4/12/2013)
Visits: 1,579
- Renewable energy
- Climate impacts

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