GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Productivity, Food Prices and Food Security in South Asia" by Bandara, Jayatilleke Abstract Note: This abstract has been prepared for the Dynamic GTAP modelling session. There is a consensus among many researchers of climate change issues on two things. Firstly, global climate change (GCC) is real and it is occurring at a faster rate. Secondly, agriculture (mainly food production) is the most vulnerable sector to climate change. Therefore, the impact on food production, food prices and food security stands out among a wide range of likely negative impacts of human activities-induced climate change. In addition to the upward pressure on food prices caused by increasing demand as a result of increase in population and income levels, it is obvious that there will be further upward pressure on food prices when food production decreases as a result of GCC as predicted by many empirical studies. For example, food demand is predicted to increase by around 300 percent by the 2080s because of higher population and higher income, and demand for bio-fuel (Cline, 2008, p.28) creating an imbalance between food supply and demand for food even without GCC effects. Climate change will act as a “multiplier” of existing threat to food prices and food security (IASC, 2009) and “world food prices are a useful single indicator of the effects of climate change on agriculture (Quiggin 2007; Nelson, Rosegrant et al. 2009). Agriculture plays a critical role in economies of developing countries (it dominates around 75 percent) and it is the most vulnerable sector to climate change because farming is so weather-dependent (Nelson, Rosegrant et al. 2009). The recent experience of the global food crisis in 2007 and 2008 demonstrates that populations in developing countries, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected in the world as a result of a food crisis multiplied by GCC. With increasing concern over climate change in recent years, some researchers and international organisations have focused on the strong link betwee... |
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- Dynamic modeling - Climate impacts - Asia (South-Central) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 4174 (315.2 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 1:05:45 PM
