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GTAP Resource #4179

"Impacts of Population aging on economic growth and structure change in China"
by Li, Shantong and Jianwu He

The feature of Chinese demographic structure is changing from a high fertility rate, high death rate and low life expectancy to low fertility rate, low death rate and high life expectancy. According to the sixth census data of National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2010, the share of aged 60 and above in total population is 13.26%. And the phenomena of ageing population in coming future will become more serious. This demographic change has not only increased the burden of social security pension and reduced the active labor force; it will also influence the saving rate and consumption structure and further affect the economic structure and sustainability of China’s economic development.
This paper starts the study to analyze change of consumption structure of household of various age structure based upon survey data (2003-2007) of CHIPS (Chinese Household Income Project) to explore the changing relationship between China’s demographic structure and consumption structure. Then according to the head of household age and family size of the household, we divided the households in the CGE model into 12 groups (six groups in rural and urban areas respectively) to capture the relation between consumer behavior and demographic structure, and analyze the impact of demographic change under three different population policies scenarios on the China’s economic growth and structure change using DRC dynamic recursive CGE model. In this dynamic CGE model, different population policies reflect different fertility and mortality and there are different population aging trends. Through the three scenarios simulation, this research analyzes the impacts of population aging on China’s national saving, fiscal burden, economic growth and industrial structure. Finally the paper will address some policy implications, especially the population policy in the future.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Created: Li, S. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Li, S. (4/15/2013)
Visits: 1,491
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