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GTAP Resource #4388

"Ageing and Consumer Spending: Some Preliminary Findings from India and China "
by Deb, Surajit

1. Background: The demographic transition of population ageing in China and India has the potential to alter the economic growth and development process of both the countries. Ageing may affect the size and composition of the labor-force that can bear important implications for the economic growth. The component of aged population also bears a straightforward impact on the health care expenditures due to rising health care needs of the elderly. Contemporary research examining the spending patterns of the elderly within the Life Cycle Hypothesis predicted a downward pressure on household saving and higher shares of consumer spending on health care expenditures. Studies based on survey data of household consumer expenditure show that the shares of housing-related services and health in total household expenditure seem to be steadily increasing with age in both the United States and European Union (Lee and Mason, 2007). If the spending pattern of the elderly indeed change and bear a negative impact on the consumer demand, then one can envisage a fall in growth rates in both the emerging economies due to declining domestic demands.
2. Objective: In this background, the objective of this paper is set to examine the likely impacts of ageing on the aggregate consumer spending - individually for rural and urban areas - on the basis of using the regional (or provincial) data from India and China. Our analysis proceeds in the following sequences. We first examine the extent of population aging in India and China by analyzing the inherent characteristics of old-age and child dependency ratios. The population pyramids are also examined for the two countries by splitting the total population between male-female as well as rural-urban categories. Subsequently, we examine the regional patterns of ageing by using the Census (2011) data for 30 states from India and 31 provinces from China, respectively. Finally, we attempt to assess the ageing impacts on the aggregate as well...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Deb, S. (4/10/2014)
Updated: Deb, S. (4/10/2014)
Visits: 2,607
- Demographics
- Economic development
- Asia (East)
- Asia (South-Central)

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