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GTAP Resource #4473

"Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification in Brazil."
by Gonçalves da Silva, Jonathan, Joaquim Bento Ferreira-Filho and Mark Horridge

In this paper we examine the potential for land sparing effects generated by productivity increases in livestock and agriculture in Brazil. We are particularly interested in deforestatin results, or the analyzis of the so called "Borlaug hypothesis"
We survey Brazilian trends in agricultural land use and productivity, noting that (a) most output increase has been due to productivity growth rather than to increased land use; and (b) deforestation has recently slowed dramatically. Is a permanent pause consistent with expected agricultural output growth?
To examine these questions we extend an existing CGE model of Brazil, TERM-BR. This multi-period, multi-regional model can distinguish 108 sectors in 27 regions with 10 household types and 10 labor grades. A land use change (LUC) module tracks changes inter-period transitions between land uses within each state. The core database is based on the 2005 Brazilian Input-Output tables.
The extensions described in this paper are:
- New LUC data is calibrated from satellite imagery physical observations between 1994 and 2002.
- As well as showing the movement of land areas between different uses, the new LUC data show CO2 emissions assocated with each use change.
- The new LUC transition matrix has an extra dimension, the Biome dimension, which allows more detailed accounting of LUC emissions.

Results point to a mixed effect, with positive deforestation gains from livestock productivity increases and negative for agriculture, with associated emissions results. We also investigate the impacts of prodctivity increases on different biomes. Model results show that the Amazonia and Cerrado biomes would the most positively affected, but important land sparing effects also appear in the Caatinga biome.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Ferreira-Filho, J. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Ferreira-Filho, J. (4/15/2014)
Visits: 1,546
- Dynamic modeling
- Land use
- Technological change
- South America

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