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GTAP Resource #4518

"The Impact of Regionally Differentiated Climate Change on Agricultural Markets in Ethiopia: Combining Climate and Economic Models"
by Grethe, Harald and Khalid Siddig


Abstract
1 Introduction
Though most current climate models agree that the impact of climate change will be most severe in Africa, there is little agreement on the magnitude and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation shifts. Analysing the full range of available scenarios, however, indicates that the risk of severe climate change impact is highest in the Sahel, East Africa and Southern Africa. In this paper we use yield effects of several climate change scenarios generated by the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research generated with the vegetation model LPJ and map them to agricultural production activities in a single country CGE model for Ethiopia with a regionalized supply structure. Climate change/LPJ projections include various scenarios, such that regions can be identified which are negatively affected by many scenarios and thus vulnerable to climate change.

2 Research questions
What are the likely effects of climate change on agricultural supply in the different agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia?
What are the likely effects of these supply changes on domestic Ethiopian prices, demand, trade, macroeconomic variables and welfare?

3 Methodology
The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process-based, large scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework (Sitch et al. 2003). It forms the basis for simulating yield changes under different climate change scenarios based on global circulation models.
The CGE model applied in this paper is based on the STAGE model developed by Scott McDonald (2007) and a 2005 SAM of Ethiopia. The STAGE model is characterised by several distinctive features. First, the model allows for a generalised treatment of trade relationships by incorporating non-traded commodities as well as imperfect transformability between production for the domestic market and export. Second, the model allows for multiple produc...


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: 01
Created: Grethe, H. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Grethe, H. (4/15/2014)
Visits: 841
- Climate impacts
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Africa (East)


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