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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4529

"Futures of agriculture and food systems: impacts on rural job dynamics in SSA"
by Douillet, Mathilde and Carmen Estrades

In the coming years, several dynamics of transformation of African agriculture and food systems are possible as
a consequence of the rising food demand in Africa and worldwide, the growth of African cities, the impacts of
climate change on the yields and that of the booming labor force. Although it is impossible to foresee the future
path of agriculture in Africa before it unfolds, the aim of this paper is to shed lights on some of the dynamics at
stake by using the global dynamic CGE model, MIRAGE, developed by CEPII and IFPRI, incorporating
unemployment into the initial model and testing several options of its factor market specification. Our baseline
scenario is based on the increase in global and African production as anticipated by the “World Agriculture
Towards 2050” of the FAO and population and GDP growth by the CEPII towards 2050. We also explore
different assumptions of technical changes in the African agricultural sector and global trade reforms, and
compare their impact in terms of the level of agricultural production, volume of trade, availability of food,
agricultural income, employment, management of natural resources and regional development.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Version: 1
Created: Douillet, M. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/21/2014)
Visits: 1,494
- Dynamic modeling
- Demographics
- Economic development
- Labor market issues
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)

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