GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Futures of agriculture and food systems: impacts on rural job dynamics in SSA" by Douillet, Mathilde and Carmen Estrades Abstract In the coming years, several dynamics of transformation of African agriculture and food systems are possible as a consequence of the rising food demand in Africa and worldwide, the growth of African cities, the impacts of climate change on the yields and that of the booming labor force. Although it is impossible to foresee the future path of agriculture in Africa before it unfolds, the aim of this paper is to shed lights on some of the dynamics at stake by using the global dynamic CGE model, MIRAGE, developed by CEPII and IFPRI, incorporating unemployment into the initial model and testing several options of its factor market specification. Our baseline scenario is based on the increase in global and African production as anticipated by the “World Agriculture Towards 2050” of the FAO and population and GDP growth by the CEPII towards 2050. We also explore different assumptions of technical changes in the African agricultural sector and global trade reforms, and compare their impact in terms of the level of agricultural production, volume of trade, availability of food, agricultural income, employment, management of natural resources and regional development. |
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- Dynamic modeling - Demographics - Economic development - Labor market issues - Agricultural policies - Food prices and food security - Africa (Central) - Africa (East) - Africa (Southern) - Africa (West) |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  Douillet Estrades 2014 v1 (441.2 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
