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GTAP Resource #4598

"Agricultural trade liberalization and Food Security in China—A Global CGE analysis"
by Mukhopadhyay, Kakali

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in China’s food security issue. China faces multiple challenges to achieve food security in the near future. From 2000 to 2007, 0.17 million hectares of cultivated land on average was switched to non-agricultural sectors every year (Liao 2010). If the current urban expansion trend continues, which result in the rapid land diminution, it is not an easy task to produce a sufficient amount of food in the next half century. Since 2010, China has changed its position in the world grain market from a net exporter to a net importer. The total grain trade deficit was $420 million in 2010, however, the increasing grain import conflicts to food security policy to achieve 95% grain self-sufficiency rate. In addition, the agricultural productivity of China is lower than the world average and much lower than high-income countries. On the food demand side, large population base and income growth drive China’s domestic food demand considerably. The unbalanced development of food demand and supply in China raise concern whether China is able to feed itself in next decades. Unfortunately, existing studies have yet to arrive at a consensus in this debate. The current study provides further discourse in this area.

A global CGE framework (GTAP) has been used to estimate the impacts of agriculture and trade policy interventions on food security in China. The total 129 region and 57 sectors of version 8 database have been aggregated to 16 regions and 36 sectors respectively on the basis of export and import intensiveness. A recursive process is used to project the model to 2050 under business as usual (BAU)...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Not published
Date: 2015
Created: Mukhopadhyay, K. (2/26/2015)
Updated: Batta, G. (4/15/2015)
Visits: 2,100
- Baseline development
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Asia (East)

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