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GTAP Resource #4677

"Land use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: CET vs. logit functions"
by Fujimori, Shinichiro, Tomoko Hasegawa, Toshihiko Masui and Kiyoshi Takahashi

Many global agricultural studies have taken into consideration long-term or medium-term (up to 2030 or 2050) climate change effects. von Lampe et al. (2014) summarized the results of the recent AgMIP exercise, which was an analysis of global economic models. Land use is one of the key elements within such economic models, because land is a factor in the production of most of the agricultural sector. Two representative land use functions that take into account the heterogeneity of land have been applied in CGE models to specify land allocation among land use sectors: the Constant Elasticity Transformation (CET) and logit functions. For both functions, it is quite hard to estimate empirical parameters for global long-term simulations. It is therefore hard to identify which of the two functions is more realistic at this moment (Kyle et al. 2011).

We have been using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model CGE (AIM/CGE) model (Fujimori et al. 2012, 2014) in the AgMIP exercise.
This study compares both functions in future scenarios and evaluates area balance violations of land use area made by CET by using AIM/CGE. We found that agricultural goods production and land use were similar with CET and logit functions. The area balance violation generated by CET was large and heterogeneous across regions, but was small for the aggregated world total. In conclusion, the logit approach was preferable to the CET approach if any scenario assumption, such as consumption preference, changed by much from the base year, or if the main focus of the study was region-specific variables rather than global aggregates.

The full paper can be seen in the following article.
Fujimori S., Hasegawa T., Masui T. and Takahashi K., Land use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: CET vs. logit functions, Food Security, 6(5), 685-699,doi:10.1007/s12571-014-0375-z.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2015 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 18th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Melbourne, Australia; Food security
Date: 2014
Created: Fujimori, S. (4/14/2015)
Updated: Fujimori, S. (6/16/2015)
Visits: 1,436
- Model validation and sensitivity analysis
- Land use

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